
Well, we survived what will go down as the third worst snowstorm in the History of Northern Virginia. This picture was taken on the afternoon of 6 February 2010 in at the height of the storm. Today (7 February), we start to dig out!
Environmentalist, Photographer, philosophy student, and occasionally a consultant.

Marty and Mike,
I was delighted to see both of you at last night’s Committee of 100 discussion of the Environmental Chapter of the Comprehensive Plan. It’s great to see our County leaders show an interest in this critical topic.
As usual, (IMHO) Charlie “won” the debate; however, any debate with Charlie isn’t really a fair fight. He has the environment on his side and an unusual mastery of the subject at his disposal. As one of my graduate professors used to say, “…only a fool would disagree with the facts presented…”. Not many students disagreed with that professor.
That being said, the question that I asked last night (“What is the social and cultural impact of developing clustered, multi-unit housing) still haunts me when pondering the future of our County. When I asked my question about the impact of building “up” instead of “out”, neither Charlie nor Mike really had an answer (although Charlie did say that was “your” problem – ergo this note). Frankly, I considered Rob Hartwell’s comment about Belmont Bay to be a bit disingenuous since I’m guessing most developments won’t be “Belmont Bays”. While the physical environment of the County (of the world, for that matter) is an important issue, the social and cultural environment is also something that also needs to be considered. I’m guessing Charlie wasn’t thinking about Belmont Bay when he suggested that perhaps the site of a recently closed Wal-Mart up the road might be a good sight for some “up” development.
To the point: development is a classic systems problem. Last night, we listened to an excellent discussion about one important subsystem: the Environment. Request that any planning involving policy designed to drive housing decisions take a systems approach and consider all of the subsystems. I request you perhaps consider the following (not a full list):
a. The social implications of a policy that promotes high density residential development. I haven’t heard any discussion of how moving people into high density, high rise communities “changes things”. Perhaps the County should investigate (not a full list):
a. Crime rates (intuitively, I would think they go up. I’m guessing there are data available to draw upon when developing policy).
b. Cultural impact (again, I’m guessing there are data available)
c. Community impact (It might be worth exploring the experience of our neighboring communities in Northern Virginia)
d. Economic impact (does this really improve tax revenues over time)
e. Business impact (how does this change the character and composition of our County)
f. Free market impact (the difference between policy driven and free market driven housing choices)
g. Experience of other communities who followed this route.
b. The life cycle of high density residential policy. Experience tells us that high density development follows a life cycle of ownership followed by an increasing percentage of rental units and a general trend of slow decline over time. I appreciate Charlie’s discussion of the full life cycle costs of engineering that may solve a problem in the short term while causing a long term expense for the County. I would actually compare this to the life cycle of a large apartment building or condominium. We really don’t know what those buildings will look like in thirty years or what the costs of maintaining the infrastructure will be to support them. We do know that “all systems fail” whether they be streams or condos. A systems approach takes a peak at the future of all of the subsystems, not just the environment.
I really don’t know the answer to these questions. Last night, we heard a robust discussion of one dimension of a multi-dimensional problem. I propose that we need to explore the other dimensions when formulating policy. We need to ask more questions about “the rest of the story”. If the County has the answers and I just missed them, I’d appreciate a link or a reference to I may become an informed citizen. If the County is not exploring these issues, I ask that you at least consider them when developing long term commercial and residential policy for Prince William County.
If I had to weight the subsystems heavily, I would weigh the environment as the most important. To disregard the other subsystems is irresponsible. I’m sure that you are both aware of the rule of unintended consequences. Unintended consequences are usually the result of policy that does not take a systems view of the issue. I encourage both of you to take a systems view of land use policy when developing the Comprehensive Plan so our Grandchildren won’t have to pay for the unintended consequences of poor policy decisions that we make today.
Regards,
Al
Alan P. Alborn
President & Principal
Alborn Foundation
Perhaps we should stop having the same conversation about what’s wrong with the system and fix the system.