People may explain their existence as they wish; however, simply "to be" is enough of an explanation of life for me. "I am", "I always was", and "I always will be" in one form or another.
I recommend Dr. Watts book, "Does it Matter" for those wishing to learn more (although "The Book" is my favorite... I'm comfortable with the concept of "skin tubes"). His philosophy aligns nicely with Buddhism... without Buddha.
Friday, December 31, 2010
Thursday, December 30, 2010
Predictions...
Predictions influence outcome. Armed with this knowledge, Federal policy makers, lobbyists, and activists often use predictions as a propaganda tool to influence outcomes to favor their interest.
If you predict something often enough, people start to believe you and the prediction becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. The "classic" use of predictions as a propaganda tool may be observed as the precursor to war. President George W. Bush (perhaps unwittingly) used predictions regarding Iraq's Weapons of Mass Destruction capability and threat to the world as propaganda to make America Ready for War.
Environmentalists often used predictions of a dire future to spur Government at all levels into action. As a pragmatic environmentalist, I am sympathetic with these efforts. As someone who appreciates mathematics, I am not sympathetic with arguments lacking sound science and/or research to back them up. We have made too many "mistakes" in the past letting the opinions of well meaning activists substitute for sound science.
My favorite predictions are economic. If anyone really understood the math surrounding economics or the economic cycle, the world would be a very stable place. Since no one does, predictions are often made that influence the market, the value of currency, the future of nations, and the security of families.
I suspect the world of political predictions needs no further discussion as the prognosticators tend to create prophecies supporting whichever candidate, position, or outcome they desire.
I am very skeptical regarding predictions and encourage others to be likewise. I always look first for the self-interest of the person making the prediction (or, the "what's in it for him") and second for the math (or, what is the basis of this prediction). A caution on math. People have paid me over the years to build predictive models to help reduce risk for future decisions. The "funny" thing about the results of these models is they are subject to interpretation. People who requested these models often already know the "right answer" and are only looking for confirmation. They don't want to be confused with a discussion regarding assumptions, sensitivity analysis, margin of error, etc.
"Luck" plays an important role in predictions. You will generally find folks making predictions of wildly different outcomes for the same event. Those folks "lucky" enough to make the correct prediction are often credited for their sound insight, math skills, or superior intelligence. Books often result from the grandest of predictions. They often become network consultants and talk show regulars. I always remember the phrase, "past performance is no guarantee of future performance" when listening to these people.
My advice: look for the self interest of the predictor followed by the math. If you don't find satisfactory results upon inspection, discount the prediction and think for yourself.
If you predict something often enough, people start to believe you and the prediction becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. The "classic" use of predictions as a propaganda tool may be observed as the precursor to war. President George W. Bush (perhaps unwittingly) used predictions regarding Iraq's Weapons of Mass Destruction capability and threat to the world as propaganda to make America Ready for War.
Environmentalists often used predictions of a dire future to spur Government at all levels into action. As a pragmatic environmentalist, I am sympathetic with these efforts. As someone who appreciates mathematics, I am not sympathetic with arguments lacking sound science and/or research to back them up. We have made too many "mistakes" in the past letting the opinions of well meaning activists substitute for sound science.
My favorite predictions are economic. If anyone really understood the math surrounding economics or the economic cycle, the world would be a very stable place. Since no one does, predictions are often made that influence the market, the value of currency, the future of nations, and the security of families.
I suspect the world of political predictions needs no further discussion as the prognosticators tend to create prophecies supporting whichever candidate, position, or outcome they desire.
I am very skeptical regarding predictions and encourage others to be likewise. I always look first for the self-interest of the person making the prediction (or, the "what's in it for him") and second for the math (or, what is the basis of this prediction). A caution on math. People have paid me over the years to build predictive models to help reduce risk for future decisions. The "funny" thing about the results of these models is they are subject to interpretation. People who requested these models often already know the "right answer" and are only looking for confirmation. They don't want to be confused with a discussion regarding assumptions, sensitivity analysis, margin of error, etc.
"Luck" plays an important role in predictions. You will generally find folks making predictions of wildly different outcomes for the same event. Those folks "lucky" enough to make the correct prediction are often credited for their sound insight, math skills, or superior intelligence. Books often result from the grandest of predictions. They often become network consultants and talk show regulars. I always remember the phrase, "past performance is no guarantee of future performance" when listening to these people.
My advice: look for the self interest of the predictor followed by the math. If you don't find satisfactory results upon inspection, discount the prediction and think for yourself.
Tuesday, December 28, 2010
"Graduate school"
I had the pleasure of Commanding a FAD (Force/Activity Designator) I (Top national priority) TOE (Table of Organization and Equipment) Detachment for three and a half years. The Army (figuratively) handed me, a CW2 at the time, a check for twenty eight million dollars and a set of orders. I put this unit together from scratch. My job was to keep fifteen men and millions of dollars worth of mobile equipment ready to load on a C5A any time to go any place our Country needed us. This was a new unit representing a new way of fighting a war. It didn't come with a handbook. We trained hard often writing the doctrine for the training as we went along. I came to value the Non-Commissioned Officers out of Viet Nam as the key to our success.
As I look back on my success in the private sector, I realize this one assignment prepared me for all things subsequent to it. There is no graduate course, no military instruction, and few opportunities for comparable experience to prepare one for such a mission. Success in this mission gave me a certain confidence (some may say arrogance, I can live with that) that I still enjoy today.
Whatever we are at this moment in time is the sum of all experiences that preceded it. I value the moments I spent with this unit above all else and thank the United States Army for giving me the opportunity to do this task.
As I look back on my success in the private sector, I realize this one assignment prepared me for all things subsequent to it. There is no graduate course, no military instruction, and few opportunities for comparable experience to prepare one for such a mission. Success in this mission gave me a certain confidence (some may say arrogance, I can live with that) that I still enjoy today.
Whatever we are at this moment in time is the sum of all experiences that preceded it. I value the moments I spent with this unit above all else and thank the United States Army for giving me the opportunity to do this task.
Saturday, December 25, 2010
Pursuing happiness.
Good article for "my generation". I'm at the "pursuing happiness" point in my life. I have found there are still a few folks interested in "screwing with others happiness". They are best avoided.
This article from The Economist pretty much sums things up. Be happy!
This article from The Economist pretty much sums things up. Be happy!
Merry Christmas...
Sorry... Jesus preached to the multitudes wherever they gathered. Why do modern Christians need pomp and ceremony, crystal cathedrals, mega-churches, and other trappings to share his word. Why don't Christians meet in public parks while donating the money that go to such extravagances to those who need it? Is Christ just an excuse for a social experience and a place to play bingo these days? Comments welcome... and Merry Christmas!
Thursday, December 23, 2010
Political language...
"Political language is designed to make lies sound truthful and murder respectable, and to give an appearance of solidity to pure wind." - George Orwell
Sunday, December 5, 2010
Why would anyone actually want to be a politician?
You know, if we really want to "fix" Government, we should run for public office. I'm afraid (for a lot of complicated reasons) my time is past; however, I see a lot of younger men and women who would make excellent legislatures at all levels. I don't trust anyone who actually wants the job and would prefer to vote for someone who had to be talked into running.
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